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According to The Athletic, an international sports integrity watchdog issued seven alert notices regarding potential betting irregularities during the 2026 Men's World Cup, while FIFA's previous investigation results stated that no suspicious betting activities or match-fixing signs were found.

This controversy stems from a monitoring report by the Copenhagen Group. This organization is an independent international network primarily responsible for detecting, investigating, sanctioning, and preventing match-fixing in sports. The organization conducted a full integrity monitoring operation during the 104 matches of the 2026 World Cup and identified some potentially abnormal betting situations.

The Council of Europe has not yet released the full report but has published a summary. According to informed sources, several events listed as potentially abnormal include:

South African player Themba Zwane was sent off with a red card in the 84th minute of the opening match against Mexico;

The US cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket received $4.8 million (about £3.6 million) in bets on the "Spain will not beat Cape Verde" market in the group stage match between Spain and Cape Verde, which ended 0-0;

In the match where Spain defeated Saudi Arabia 4-0, the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) team took three and a half minutes to confirm the cancellation of Ferran Torres' goal.

The report also highlighted the red card incident involving US forward Folarin Balogun.

According to sources, Polymarket opened a prediction market called "Will Balogun play against Belgium?" on July 2. On the same day, Balogun was sent off with a direct red card in the round of 32 match between the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The FIFA Disciplinary Committee confirmed on July 5 that Balogun could participate in subsequent matches due to a suspension being temporarily lifted. The Copenhagen Group's report pointed out that among the other 14 players who were sent off with red cards in this World Cup, there were no similar betting markets, and these players did not receive any suspension exemptions. The only one for whom such a market was opened was Balogun.

The Copenhagen Group operates under the cooperation system of the Council of Europe's Macolin Convention, which aims to combat match-fixing through changes in international legal mechanisms.

The organization has formally requested FIFA to provide a written explanation for the Balogun incident. The Athletic has contacted FIFA and Polymarket for responses to the relevant investigation results.

Christian Kalb, an industry expert with long-term involvement in gambling regulation, said that the anomalies discovered by the Copenhagen Group do not necessarily mean that the matches were manipulated; they may be caused by other factors.

He told The Athletic: "These anomalies may come from odds changes, market liquidity changes, and other non-manipulative factors. We must be very cautious in our judgment."

FIFA Integrity Task Force: No Suspicious Bets Found During the World Cup

The monitoring action by the Copenhagen Group was carried out in collaboration with the FIFA Integrity Task Force. Both the task force and the Council of Europe are independent organizations.

However, on Tuesday, the FIFA Integrity Task Force released a report stating: "Throughout the entire World Cup, no suspicious betting activities related to the matches were found, nor were there any signs of match-fixing."

But just one day later, the Copenhagen Group announced its monitoring results, indicating that it had found seven "yellow alerts" during the World Cup.

According to the organization's definition, a yellow alert means: "There are multiple abnormal signs, including unexplained odds fluctuations, social media rumors, or source information, etc."

The Copenhagen Group categorizes events into four risk levels:

Green: Normal;

Yellow: Slightly increased alert;

Orange: Increased alert;

Red: Highest level of alert.

Kalb stated: "The abnormal behaviors discovered by the Copenhagen Group may simply be due to odds changes or adjustments in market liquidity. Many situations can be explained and do not necessarily imply manipulation."

"The real issue is if these events involve conflicts of interest or if someone has inside information, then the risk increases."

He further explained: "Prediction markets can indeed help us identify some abnormal behaviors, but we must be cautious because they can also be used for risk hedging."

"Traditional bookmakers may encounter situations where a large number of users bet on a clearly stronger team. If the betting amount is too large, it poses a risk for small bookmakers, so they may hedge through prediction markets like Polymarket."

"Through this method, they are essentially selling the result of the strong team not winning, using it as an insurance mechanism to reduce potential losses."

World Cup Betting Reaches $240 Billion

The Copenhagen Group stated that the global betting amount during this World Cup is expected to reach $240 billion, approximately twice that of the 2022 Qatar World Cup.

The organization said it focused on monitoring 15 World Cup matches, particularly during the last round of the group stage, and conducted integrity risk analysis on 12 major controversial events.

Kalb stated: "The scale of betting during the World Cup is enormous, making it difficult to simply infer any problems. Each match may involve billions of pounds in betting."

This World Cup was also the first time the Copenhagen Group continuously monitored prediction markets, including Polymarket and FIFA's official partner, Kalshi.

Due to the rapid development of these prediction markets and the lack of unified regulatory rules in different regions globally, regulation is challenging.

Chad Beynon, a gaming and hospitality industry analyst at Macquarie Group, previously told The New York Times: "The performance of prediction markets during the World Cup exceeded all of our expectations."

The Copenhagen Group noted in the report: "These prediction markets bring unprecedented issues: they allow users to bet on a wide range of events, often anonymously, and with hard-to-track payment methods. Monitoring them is the first attempt in the history of international sporting events."

Currently, the differing conclusions of FIFA and the Copenhagen Group regarding betting irregularities during the World Cup have sparked further discussions about the integrity regulation methods for future major sporting events.